Sunday, April 22, 2018

Wiggle Matching

Comparing the occurrence rate of the phrase "unseasonable warmth" in literature (blue) to a 1975 northern hemisphere temperature reconstruction (black)

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Friday, April 20, 2018

Meridional vs Zonal: cooling vs warming 1975-2000

from Chilling Possibilities, Science News, 1975

The winter of 1780-81 was a particularly bitter one for the American Revolutionary forces. Washington's troops hunkered down, ill-clothed and ill-fed, around their campfires at Morristown, N.J., while a few miles away British troops enjoyed the relative luxury of an occupied New York City. But even the British had their problems, for the win- ter was so cold that parts of New York harbor froze for weeks at a time, blocking movement of their powerful fleet. The ice even got thick enough to allow hauling cannons from Manhattan to Staten Island. The colonists had struggled against devastating winters ever since establishment of the earliest settlements, when one of the few holidays celebrated by the stern Puritans was that of Thanks- giving-for a harvest bountiful enough to ensure survival until spring.
Though they didn't realize it, these hardy pioneers were trying to conquer a New World in the midst of some of the worst weather in over 2,000 years, a cold spell that had begun in the early 15th century and was to continue until around 1850, known to later climatologists as the "Little Ice Age."
By contrast, the weather in the first part of this century has been the warmest and best for world agriculture in over a millennium, and, partly as a result, the world's population has more than doubled. Since 1940, however, the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere has been steadily falling: Having risen about 1.1 degrees C. between 1885 and 1940, according to one estimation, the temperature has already fallen back some 0.6 degrees, and shows no signs of reversal.

 During warm periods a "zonal circulation" predominates, in which the prevailing westerly winds of the temperate zones are swept over long distances by a few powerful high and low pressure centers. The result is a more evenly distributed pattern of weather, varying relatively little from month to month or season to season. During cooler climatic periods, how- ever, the high-altitude winds are broken up into irregular cells by weaker and more plentiful pressure centers, causing formation of a "meridional circulation" pattern. These small, weak cells may stagnate over vast areas for many months, bringing unseasonably cold weather on one side and unseasonably warm weather on the other. Droughts and floods become more frequent and may alternate season to season, as they did last year in India. Thus, while the hemisphere as a whole is cooler, individual areas may alternately break temperature and precipitation records at both extremes.

United Nations Fisheries and Aquaculture Org (circa 2000)

Meridional (C) circulation dominated in 1890-1920 and 1950-1980. The combined, "zonal" (W+E) circulation epochs dominated in 1920-1950 and 1980-1990. Current "latitudinal"(WE) epoch of 1970-1990s is not completed yet, but it is coming into its final stage, and so the "meridional" epoch (C-circulation) is now in its initial stage. (It will be useful for the reader to note here the relation that shows that the "transition" from C to W-E is continuous, and the equation balances to 100%, in the form of a simple graphic without any other variables included).

It was found that "zonal" epochs correspond to the periods of global warming and the meridional ones correspond to the periods of global cooling. (Lamb 1972; Lambeck 1980).


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The effect of a low solar cycle on weather and climate propaganda

Scientists blame sun for global warming - BBC, Feb 1998
"The sun is currently at its most active for 300 years."

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
Independent, March 2000

Scientists predict milder winters in Britain and an end to Europe's ski industry
Guardian, Jan 2001

NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate
NASA/GISS, March 2003

Sunspots reaching 1,000-year high - BBC, July 2004
"A new analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years."

Is Mild Winter a Sign of Climate Change?
NPR, Jan 2007

No more drought: it's a 'permanent dry'
TheAge Sep 2007
"Drought will become a redundant term as Australia plans for a permanently drier future"

A First! Snow Falls in Baghdad
AP, Jan 2008

Climate change threat to alpine ski resorts
Telegraph,  May 2008

Spotless Sun: Blankest Year of the Space Age
NASA, Sep 2008

Arctic blast brings London earliest snow for 70 years
Evening Standard, Oct 2008

The Alps have best snow conditions 'in a generation'
Telegraph, Dec 2008

'Quiet Sun' baffling astronomers
BBC, April 2009
"If the Sun's dimming were to have a cooling effect, we'd have seen it by now."
- Professor Mike Lockwood

Children die in harsh Peru winter
BBC, July 2009

World's climate could cool first, warm later
New Scientist, Sep 2009

Beijing’s Heaviest Snow in 54 Years Strands Thousand
Bloomberg, Nov 2009

Heavy snow continues as temperatures set to plunge minus 20C
Herald (Scotland) Jan 2010

Quiet sun puts Europe on ice
New Scientist, May 2010

Freeze Challenges Power Supply
Xinhua (China), Jun 2010

Scientists see climate change link to Australian floods
Reuters, Jan 2011

Scientists:Don’t make “extreme cold” centerpiece of global warming argument
WaPo, Feb 2014

‘Polar vortex’ brings big freeze to North America
Telegraph UK, Aug 2014

Cold winters have been caused by global warming: new research
Telegraph UK, Oct 2014

Why global warming does not necessarily result in warmer winters
Economist, Mar 2015

Global warming will make winters in Britain even COLDER
Sun UK, Oct 2016

Climate change could make summers hotter and winters milder
SanDiegoTribune, Jan 2017

Is It Okay to Enjoy the Warm Winters of Climate Change?
Atlantic, Feb 2017

A warming Arctic can actually make our winters colder
Poopular Mechanics, Sep 2017

Climate change at work? Weather Service calls for third straight mild winter.
WaPo, Oct 2017

It's cold outside. But that doesn't mean climate change isn't real.
USA Today, Dec 2017

Big snowfall, a cooler ocean and, yet, more signs of global warming
NBC, Jan 2018

Why climate change may be to blame for dangerous cold blanketing eastern U.S.
NBC, Jan 2018

Q&A: What does all this snow mean for climate change?
Guardian, Feb 2018

Why a Warming Arctic May Be Causing Colder U.S. Winters
NatGeo, Mar 2018

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Friday, February 10, 2017

another image placeholder

Goes-16, Blue visible, Red visible + IR "Veggie" as Green

new cat

Himawari-8, Red, Green & Blue visible channels

GOES-16, channels 5 (IR ice and snow), 3 (IR "veggie") & 1 (visible blue)

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